Thursday, May 24, 2007
The Dow dropped 85 points today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. So we rolled over here. How long will it last? I don't know. I do know we are short term oversold here. I expect a bounce within the next 2 days. It is what happens after the bounce that is key. At this point I don't think we will be going to new highs any time soon. I could be wrong. I might try and buy some puts if we get a weak volume rally attempt from here. The market will have to let me know what to do. Gold lost over $9 today and the XAU fell three and a half points. I think that the gold market is done for a while. Interest rates are heading higher here and the dollar is firming. It was interesting that NEM didn't go down today and the volume was extremely heavy again. I think there are takeover rumors floating around about this issue. I will have to look into it further. Perhaps some long term out of the money calls are needed. But perhaps not. The technicals have really deteriorated for gold at the moment. It might be prudent to just let that go for now and wait for a reliable signal. Mentally it's been a busy day. I have also had my eye on MSFT puts and today they doubled in value. I still might try this trade on a bounce. It appears that there is a potential double top on the weekly charts. The June 30 puts are the ones I'm looking at. I expect tomorrow all the real action will take place early before the 3 day weekend. Maybe some follow through from today and then a rally into the close. That's my guess but who knows?
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