Thursday, April 12, 2007
The Dow rose 68 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. We sold off early and then went straight up. We are right back at the highs and we will either take them out tomorrow or there will be a double top. I bought some OEX puts at some point today. I did want to be short ahead of the inflation number. I am a bit worried about the advance today because if it is as strong as it seems, the inflation data may not matter. The puts are losing a bit at the moment. The stop-loss order is in so some risk control is in place. Gold lost a couple bucks and the XAU was up a touch. I dumped the ABX calls at a substantial loss, about 80%. I didn't have a lot of money in this trade but I really should have been out last week. ABX didn't do much today and the volume was pretty good there. That trade was terrible. When gold moves higher and the XAU doesn't go along with it, there's trouble being long gold shares. I know this but was stupid once again. Like I have said before regarding volume and open interest on options, it usually doesn't mean anything. When I purchased the ABX calls, volume and open interest expanded. It didn't mean a thing. I am glad to be out of that trade and have moved on to the OEX. This could very well be a loser too depending on tomorrow. But the loss will be contained and I will simply move on. Mentally I'm somewhat tired, not getting much sleep last night. Of course if I had known how the market was going to act today I would have slept in. So now it's a matter of waiting for tomorrow and I'll take it from there. However todays action wasn't constructive for the short side and unless we get some big producer inflation number, the puts are dead. That said, I do think producer and consumer prices surged last month, it's just a matter of how the markets react to it.
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