Monday, December 18, 2006
The Dow lost 4 points on average volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative and the overall market was much weaker than the Dow. I think the only thing helping the Dow here has been GE, which has been up about 2 points in 4 days. The summation index has rolled over but the indices haven't really been hit. Gold was off a couple bucks and the XAU lost over 2 points. We are just about at an uptrend line for the XAU. The technicals are oversold also. I'd like to get long but just don't feel good about it. It's the sidelines for now. I do not think I'll be entering any trades until next year but you never know. The dollar has been stronger here and is coming off oversold conditions longer term. This doesn't bode well for gold. However money flows should remain positive for the next few weeks. It's never easy. Mentally I'm taking it easy. It's kind of like a vacation at this time of year. The big players are on holiday so I don't expect any earth shattering moves. The summation index needs to come off the high levels that it is at in order to rally again. So some weakness in the advance/decline line would be welcome for the bulls. There is no other news so it's kind of like time for a break. Of course the work still has to be done every day. But the urgency is gone for a while. There is also an extra week in this option cycle and that lends itself to marking time. So we will sit and wait for a decent signal and take it from there.
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