Wednesday, November 15, 2006
The Dow rose 33 points today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. The Fed announcement came out. I had an order for some puts in but adjusted it after the market didn't move much on the Fed news. The market then went on to make a new high and the puts got filled. The market sold off a bit after that and the puts are now slightly profitable. It is a risky trade. Inflation news tomorrow will be the key. I will need to get out of these things relatively quickly with only 2 days to go before expiration. The stop-loss order is in. Gold was a touch lower today. NEM was higher and the calls that I almost got yesterday would have made some money. However the gold shares sold off early and I could have been stopped out for a loss which really would have ticked me off. I still want to go long there but will wait for now. I don't expect much movement after this week because of the holiday. My feeling at this point is to get January calls in ABX or NEM. Mentally I'm feeling good having gotten a good price for the puts. But it could all blow up tomorrow as I well know. The OEX is at the top of the Bollinger band, overbought and I can't see it going that much higher from here. But sideways movement would kill this trade also. The data tomorrow will drive this trade one way or the other. I'll need to be ready to do what it takes to make it work hopefully. I really don't think I'll be holding on until Friday. The market just keeps going higher.
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