Thursday, March 17, 2005
The Dow was down 6 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. The market could not make up its mind which way to go today. The overall market was better than the Dow. We need a bounce because we are way oversold. If we don't get a decent bounce, I would be very worried about a collapse. That's just a guess but we need some upside soon in my opinion. Gold lost $5 today but the gold shares hung in there. The XAU was up fractionally. When something like this happens it is usually a good sign for the gold stocks. Nobody wants to sell. I do not have a good buy signal here but I do want to get long ABX or NEM. I almost did today for a one day play but thankfully did not. I will roll into April if an opportunity presents itself. I'm trying to stay patient but it might move up without me. Hopefully not. It is a tough call. ABX really looks like it needs to back off before a long play can be started. The indicators are not where they were for the last trade, which I was very confident about. The dollar was higher today which again makes the action in the gold shares interesting. Perhaps it is just an expiration related event. That's what makes it difficult. I don't know if there is an expectation of higher prices which is causing players not to sell or if it is just an expiration week thing. Staying out for now but do want back in. No plays on the OEX here, although I would have liked to have the guts to get some calls. Maybe next week but the time factor will be in play. More tomorrow.
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