Friday, February 11, 2005
The Dow rose about 45 points to day on good volume. Advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The underlying tone was much more bullish then the actual price move. We are at new highs for the year. The declines of January have been erased. How much higher can we go here? I don't know but I expect the market at this point will run up into the Friday expiration next week. That will screw whoever is short and owns February puts. Just like the owners of January calls got it. Gold was up another 4 bucks today. The XAU gained a point and three quarters. ABX was up another quarter on good volume again. We are at the overhead downtrend line here. I would expect some pullback or sideways movement. I'm holding on to the calls. I don't think we will just go straight up and you really never know what will happen. But I feel confident that the downside is over for gold here. The dollar was up just a tad today. There is an uptrend line, short-term, that is in force right now for the dollar. I believe it will be taken out within the next 2 weeks. Perhaps we are building a little top here. Time will tell. I now have to decide on an exit strategy for the gold calls. I'm looking at 24 as a price to get out of the ABX trades at this point. I'll have to closely look at the charts over the weekend. It looks like perhaps a bottom is in for gold here. But it's just my opinion and my ideas so far haven't been the greatest. I'll try to keep that in mind going forward. But this particular trade looks like it could be a winner. No OEX thoughts for now. But I'll be keeping an eye on it.
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