5 minutes until the close. I put in an overnight order to purchase some NEM calls as a play on gold. Gold has been dropping here for quite a while. The daily and weekly charts are all oversold. I would like to trade more than just the OEX, if I can be good enough to do it. Order did not get filled, I priced it for perfection. NEM up a little today. Might try this again in a couple days if all goes right. Dow was down over 100 points about an hour ago but has come back. Today might have been the day to buy some calls. Could not bring myself to do it however this might be the spot. We've been down and choppy. Approaching a trendline at around 540 on the OEX. Short-term oversold on some indicators. I would like to get the Fed meeting out of the way. Summation Index still pointing down. Perhaps if we can build a small base here it might be a worthwhile trade. Will keep an eye on that and gold. Gotta run...

20 minutes to go and a good sell-off today. Dow off 130 points. No good reason really. Gold getting hammered too. Is it setting up for a purchase of some calls? Perhaps. The 1st quarter GDP number will be out tomorrow. That will be the catalyst for the rest of the week. It's also the end of the month on friday. Summation Index is still pointing down but I feel that has to change. It's been going down for quite a while now. It can't last forever like that unless we are about to really fall apart. It's a possibility but I don't think it's a probability. I'd like to have the guts to get some calls here but I think the best strategy at this time would be to wait until after the Fed next tuesday. There is no clear signal from my indicators to do anything here. Perhaps getting a little short-term oversold after today. I should be patient and stay on the sidelines if I can. We'll see...

It's tuesday. Monday was another nowhere day. Dow down around 30 points on light volume. Today we had some gains early, the Dow was up 80. But we've come off the highs and are up 30 with a half hour to go. It looks like maybe a little downtrend could start here but I don't think it would last long. Things are still mixed here, with no clear signal. The Summation Index is still pointing down but like I said before this can't go on forever. The CBOE call/put ratio is getting bearish. And we've got the Fed next week. It's really time for me to sit back, be patient and wait for a good entry. Can I do that, is the main question...

Not much movement on friday. The Dow was up around 10 points. Had poor advance/decline numbers again, about 2 to 1 negative. I'm not so sure about this rally because of that. However the summation index has been going down for over 2 months now and I think it needs to turn around soon. I'll have to sit it out until a legit signal appears, if I can. It's mixed for now. Discipline is key. I'll try my best but it's tough with all that money out there to be made. Not much else to say. It's a waiting game...

Market up strong today. Dow up around 150 points with 20 minutes to go. Maybe that intermediate signal was legit. Nothing to do but wait now. For an opportunity. The option prices were high, really, to negate any odds of a trade at this point. But you never know. I'll wait for what I think is a decent signal, maybe next week...

About a half hour to go today. Kind of a mixed market. The Dow is around unchanged but the S&P 500 is up around 5 points and the Naz is up around 10 points. However the advances/declines are negative. Intermediate buy signal today on one of my indicators. I'd like to get long here but more of a base needs to be built. Hard to say. Probably best to stay out until something solid appears. But that never happens. Maybe if we are negative tomorrow and the OEX gets to 540 I'll do something. There is a trendline there. Otherwise not much else. Just trying to have the discipline to remain patient. Hope I can but ya never know...

About 10 minutes to go, market selling off on Big Als comments. Down around 90 points now. Greenspan is telegraphing higher interest rates to come with his comments on inflation and pricing power. He speaks again tomorrow. Oh Almighty Al. Moving closer to an oversold level on an intermediate term basis. Possibly getting close to a time to buy calls. A lower low on the OEX and a higher low on the McClellan Oscillator might be a trigger. Sitting out could be a good idea too. However when this thing is blown out to the downside, at least a bounce is worth a shot. I'm thinking now that the sharp rally after the March expiration was a snapback to the uptrend line that was broken. Meaning lower prices from here on out. But who knows? Summation Index still pointing down, that thing has worked. I'll have to check the charts later. Market still selling off hard into the close. Down over 100 points. See ya tomorrow...

The jury is still out on where we go from here I guess. Not much movement with light volume today. Dow off around 9 points. Summation Index still pointing down. Greenspan blabs a couple times this week. Maybe something will key off of that. I think we could go up a little here. Some intermediate term things are about to say that. Overall though, we need something to propel this market higher through the resistance. I don't see anything like that at this time. I'll try to stay on the sidelines for at least this week. Unless we get oversold pretty good. Patience is a good trait to have when you need it. Now just could be one of those times...

Sunday afternoon and where do we go from here? May options have 5 weeks to go on them so the pricing is higher in the beginning and the price moves on the options vs. the underlying is much smaller. Probably waiting a couple weeks for the next trade will be in order. But who knows? If a good signal appears, I suppose I would have to try and take advantage of it. No clear direction here. The market will have to take out its prior highs to really be bullish. That could happen but I suspect sideways activity barring a terrorist attack. But I don't really know. Reflecting on the week that was, I sure got lucky catching the low of the day on that OEX trade and making a profit. You really can't think you know anything when you make some money in this game or you will most likely just give it right back. It's happened to me a lot. Don't get me wrong, sometimes you do know something. But most of the time you don't. Do the work and give it your best shot. There is so much to know and so much to do that this isn't something I would recommend to most people. More tomorrow...

I've been busy. Here is a recap of the end of this past week. The McClellan Oscillator got down to a very oversold reading of around minus 250 on wednesday. I thought some kind of bounce would be due thursday or friday. I got up on thursday and the market was around unchanged and I had to go to the dentist. I decided that if the market got weak, I would put in an order for some calls. Not a huge order, since their is only a day and a half left for the options, but a small trade. And only if the market dropped. So before I went to the dentist I placed an order with a limit price that was so low it would take a miracle to get filled. Since the McClellan Oscillator basically went straight down I figured it was due for some kind of bounce. While I'm in the dentists chair, the market starts to drop. Dentists nowadays have TVs in the ceiling so you can watch something while they drill you. So I'm watching CNBC and thinking, could those calls actually get filled? The market was down over 50 points. I finally get back home and lo and behold I now own some calls. With one day to go before they expire. And the market came back to be up a little on the day so I already had a small profit. However IBM announced their earnings after the bell and the futures sold off. So here I sit with a couple OEX calls. I still thought it could work though. Friday comes around and the market actually opens higher. In fact if not for IBM it would have really been up. An oversold bounce it was. Of course I hold on to these things longer than I should have but it doesn't matter. It was going to be profitable. I had caught the low of the day yesterday. I sold out near the close for around a 250% gain. Of course I could have sold earlier but no complaints here. Which brings me to something that I read recently. You can know how to trade but it is the act of trading that produces results. Knowing is not acting. Thinking is not acting. Planning is not acting. Only acting is acting. I think it means something like no matter how much you put in before the trade it is the trade itself where you gotta do it. I'm always working on that and forever will be...

I've been pressed for time and not able to get back here. Market has weakened a lot since mondays close. Down around 140 points yesterday and down again today although not as much. Bonds got hammered. However the McClellan Oscillator is deeply in oversold territory and should be minus 200 something after todays action. I'd say to buy any weakness tomorrow morning for a bounce. Maybe some OEX 550 calls below $2. Sell them on any rally for a quick options expiration week double. I'd think about actually doing it but I'm trying to stay out and I do have a dentists appointment in the morning. But short term, calls would be the play. Market coming back at the close. Could be a possible hammer on the daily candlesticks. More later...

Globex futures off around 3 points on the S&P. No big developments over the weekend. We'll see how weak it is tomorrow. Of course now I wish I still had the puts working. But what can ya do? Unless a clear signal comes up, I'm gonna try and hang out this week. Could get a short-term buy for tuesday or wednesday but it would have to set up that way. Dentist on thursday, that could complicate things. We'll see how it goes. Do see some sell signals in place. Not much else to say...

Friday was a market holiday. I sold the OEX put options near the close on thursday. Had to get out. At one point they had a couple hundred dollar profit. But the market snapped back up at the end and I was lucky to get out with a small profit. The options have a week left but I couldn't take the risk. The McClellan Oscillator has moved into negative territory and the summation index is pointing down so further weakness would not be a surprise. But it's not a sure thing one way or another. I am going to try and stay out next week. Unless a clear signal emerges. It is a very difficult game. Good earnings came out thursday but the market was down 40 points. A market that doesn't rally on good news is a caution flag. We are also moving up to the previous highs. Next week will go a long way to figuring out if we are in a sustained new rally phase or what we just saw was a snapback from the decline. Time will tell...

Finally some weakness today, mainly due to trouble in Iraq. Tried to sell the OEX puts at the end of the day and did not get filled at my limit price. Was looking to just break even at this point. Volatility picked up at the end of the day with 50 point swings both ways. Most likely should have just gotten out and forget about it. This trade is a hassle. Timing on the entry was off and that threw everything into a questionable scenario. If we are weak on the open tomorrow I might be able to salvage a break-even scenario, otherwise it's just another loser. Dow down 90 points and this thing can't even get to the plus side. Advance/declines way too positive for a market down this much. Troublesome for the short side. S&P not down nearly enough with the DOW. Hopefully some bad news overnight or I'm done. At any rate I certainly will not hold this thing over a long weekend. Should have gotten out today, that is a fact.

Lackluster day. Dow up again, 12 points. It cannot continue. Overall market was a little weak. OEX down more than a point. Options barely moved. Yes, I'm still holding them for a loss but will dump tomorrow. Have to. Under better circumstances, this trade might have been profitable. But the market is too strong, the inflows won't stop until next month. I should try to find a last week of expiration stock pick to the upside. Maybe PFE, GE or MSFT. Who knows or cares? Maybe just step aside and wait for better days. Need to dump the OEX.

The market continued up today. Dow up 85 points. I bought a couple OEX puts when it was up around 35. So I'm already losing money. Divergence and negative again today. Advance declines weak. How long can this go on? As long as it wants to I guess. I've got to believe that tomorrow will be a down day. The indicators are overbought off the charts! Some kind of pullback has got to take place. Or it doesn't. I will be happy at this point to break even or just lose a couple hundred. Looks like any pullback will be short-lived and it would be wise to dump these puts tomorrow. Will it just keep going up? I fucking hope not...

And so it is sunday. The futures are off slightly. Seems like the market commentators I've read over the weekend have the same idea as me. It is a market to short. That's worrisome. I don't like it when everyone has the same idea. I will say that I've got to see some strength to short it. That will be the key. If that happens I feel confident that a profitable trade is at hand if I can just get the hell out fast. This isn't a long term deal. This is a quick scalp and be gone. We will see what unfolds tomorrow.

My thought here is to short any strength on monday. The prices were higher on friday and the McClellan Oscillator was lower. The exact opposite occurred before the recent big run-up. I'm not saying this is going to lead to a huge downmove. I don't think it will. But this could be an excellent short-term scalp for a few hundred. In on monday sometime and right back out on tuesday if all goes to plan. A couple OEX puts and then right back out after some profit. Will it work? Who knows? The overall pattern now is up, it's just a matter of how far up it will go. MSFT is looking stronger than GE at this point and I will buy some calls if it pulls back here. But the next trade will be an attempt at a scalp.

Overbought and staying there. The employment number was higher than expected and a rally ensued. Dow up almost 100 points. Did not get any calls. GE and MSFT both up good today. Advance/declines weren't all that good. Volume good though. We need a rest soon. Might try to time that. Bonds got killed today. That money might migrate to stocks. New high for the year coming up? Maybe but I don't know. How long can it stay overbought like this? As long as it likes I suppose. But I'll probably be buying some OEX puts on monday...

Market still moving higher. It will not give a decent opportunity to get in. It just kept on moving as I thought that maybe it would a few days ago. I put in an order to purchase some MSFT calls if we get a dip on the employment report tomorrow. But I doubt it will get filled. Dow up 15 points, overall market much stronger, advance/declines solidly positive. So that's it. Looks like I missed it. Now just sit around and wait for something else I guess. Will get long something if we ever get a pullback. Market overbought still and staying there. Looks like the powers that be will keep this thing propped up until at least the April expiration. See ya later...
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