This blog will describe Jimmybees latest Market thoughts. It also will include thoughts on Jimmybees ongoing trading.
Tuesday, June 09, 2026
Volatilty was the name of the game today along with one day downside reversals as most indices opened higher and closed lower. The Dow however did manage a gain of 86 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The NASDAQ led the way down and that is still the underlying theme. We had a big gap at the open and markets powered higher but it was short lived. Stocks then turned around and went into free fall for a couple of hours only to turn back around and recoup almost all of the losses. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are all over the place. Some are moving lower, some higher and the rest sideways. During the brief morning rally I was stopped out of my SPY June put position only to see things turn back down during the session. The trade had around a 30% gain but should have been much more. I've been stopped out before only to see things turn around on a trade and that is one of the reasons why I sometimes don't use them. There are also many times where the stop has saved me from bigger losses. The entry on this trade was OK even though not the best but the exit was terrible. That said we simply move on from here because that position is over. I am still considering the SPY June puts if we see some rally the rest of this week. Gold fell $81 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower along with interest rates. The XAU dropped 4 1/3, while GDX slid about a point. Volume was above average. The short term indicators for GDX are still oversold. We are now thinking about the GDX July calls but not exactly sure if that will be the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as to getting stopped out of what could have been a huge gain. But the market doesn't care and you've got to keep moving forward in this game. The VIX was higher today but off of its best levels. Some of the short term indicators here are heading sideways and some are still heading higher. The VIX closed just below the 20 level. I'm still not sure where the VIX is headed but anything above 20 spells more selling for stocks. It is another reason to still consider the SPY June puts going forward. Seven days left for the June option cycle. Inflation data due out tomorrow should get things moving once again. Asia was generally higher and Europe generally lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Monday, June 08, 2026
Bouncing back today for the overall market but not the Dow as it fell 80 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is starting to drift lower. We had a big gap up at the open and rallied for the first hour and a half. The rest of the day was spent in a slow decline. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that is a plus for the bulls. Also the fact that we didn't see any downside follow through to Fridays debacle is a positive sign. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned sideways. It looks like Friday could have just been a one day wonder. We've got inflation data due out on Wednesday and Thursday. I don't know how much longer I can afford to hold on the my SPY June puts. I do have a stop loss order in place and they are still showing a profit. However the gains are less than what they were on Friday. I'll once again consider what to do with them tonight. Gold was off $14 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on lighter volume. The short term indicators for GDX remain oversold. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and that fits with an overall positive day for stocks. It is back below the 20 level. Some of the short term indicators here have turned back down. I'm not sure what comes next for the VIX. Asia and Europe were lower to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.
Friday, June 05, 2026
We often say that the market goes where it wants and todays price action certainly underscores that truth. Stocks got clobbered but the Dow only fell 695 points which wasn't as bad as some of the other stock indices. Volume was heavy. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to drop out of the sideways channel that it's in. The jobs report came in better than expected. The NASDAQ led the way down and fell over a thousand points. That was better than a 4% drop. The S&P 500 lost 200 points for a better than 2 1/2% dip. It was a rush to the exits but the TRAN posted a gain on the day probably due to the drop in the price of oil. The S&P 500 broke through the short term up trend line that had been in effect since the beginning of April. The short term indicators here are now steeply heading south and at this rate will be oversold on Monday. It looks like the sell signal we got last week was valid although it took some time to come to fruition. The negative RSI divergence on the S&P daily chart worked this time around as well. Not sure how low things will go here but we'll check the charts over the weekend. The advance/declines today were not as bad as the price declines that we saw. Gold got clocked as well with the futures down $166. The XAU lost 31 1/2 and GDX dropped around 7 1/2. Volume was heavy to the downside. GDX has now dropped well below its 200 day moving average as it did not hold. The short term indicators here are pointing down in oversold territory. 80 was the next level of support here and it closed below that. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a huge jump today and closed above the 20 level. That was certainly a surprise to me. Could spell more trouble for stocks. The short term indicators here zoomed up and some still have room to go before being overbought. Things here for the VIX have changed in a hurry. Not sure what comes next. The SPY June puts that I hold went from solid losers to solid winners in a day. Not sure how much longer that I'll hold them but will try and figure that out over the weekend. Plenty of work to do in the next two days. Asia and Europe were lower to finish the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, June 04, 2026
The Dow powered higher today as it gained 874 points to a new all time high on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is now in a sideways channel. We had a huge gap lower at the open for most of the major indices but they moved back up for the rest of the session. The NASDAQ only posted a small loss after being down much more early on. The S&P 500 had a one day upside reversal as it opened lower and closed higher. The short term indicators there remain overbought and some are moving back up. My SPY June put position was at break even on the open but then deteriorated for the rest of the day. It is now back to being solidly in the red and will most likely finish as a loser. We needed to see some follow through selling to yesterdays decline but we quickly only got it this morning before turning around. My management of this trade hasn't been that good but we do have two weeks left in the June option cycle. Gold was up $41 on the futures. The US dolllar was a bit lower as were interest rates. The XAU was up 5 1/4, while GDX added 1 3/8. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to turn back up as it also tries to hold on to its 200 day moving average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an upside day for most stocks. It remains short term oversold and remains that way during rallies like the one that we're in now. The employment data is due out tomorrow which can be a market mover if there are any surprises. We are still at the mercy of the next headline out of the Middle East. Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.
Wednesday, June 03, 2026
A bit of selling today as the Dow fell 620 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to turn lower. The Dow led things lower which isn't the most bearish scenario. Let's face it, stocks were overdue for some kind of downside reaction. The market doesn't go up every day in a row. The question is whether or not this is the beginning of some sustained move to the downside or just a breather. The short term indicators on the S&P 500 have turned lower but remain overbought. The negative RSI divergence on the daily chart is there. It's possible that today is all we get out of that signal. We'll see if there's more but the market goes where it wants. My SPY June puts are showing less of a loss. Not sure how much longer I want to hold this trade. We'll check things out again tonight. Gold was down $52 today. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost over 12 1/2 and GDX dropped around 3 points. Volume was lighter than average. The short term indicators for GDX are still moving sideways in oversold territory. GDX did close below its 200 day moving average. No GDX trades in mind at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was higher today but not by much considerng the drop in stocks. The short term indicators here remain oversold. Not sure what to expect next with regards to the VIX. The jobs report on Friday should be the next market mover unless we get some headlines out of the Middle East. Europe was lower and Asia mixed again last night. I'll keep an eye on tonights developments.
Tuesday, June 02, 2026
The Dow led the way today as it gained 228 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. New all time highs were registered again for the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500. The sell signal that we received from one of our indicators last week did not work again. It is the second time in a row that it failed. Can't say that I've seen that happen recently. The short term indicators for the S&P simply remain overbought as the market drifts higher. The potential negative RSI divergence on the S&P daily chart still barely exists. My SPY June put trade is a loser and we may already be in a cut the loss mode for it. All declines are still being bought. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were a touch lower. The XAU rose around 5 3/4, while GDX added about 1 3/8. Volume was a little below average. The short term indicators are still trying to turn higher from oversold for GDX. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. It's short term indicators remain in oversold territory. The daily candlestick chart here looks like it wants to go lower which would bode well for stocks. There seems to be ample money flowing around that wants to find a home in equities. If the market doesn't head lower tomorrow I will have to seriously think about getting out of the SPY put trade. We'll see. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of Japan. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Monday, June 01, 2026
Continuing higher to start the week as the Dow rose 46 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. The NASDAQ was the leader to the upside and that's a plus for the bulls. New all time highs for the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500 again. It looks like the sell signal that we got last week isn't going to work again but we'll give it a couple of more days this week. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 remain overbought and staying that way. The potential negative RSI divergence on the S&P daily chart remains barely intact. My SPY June puts are now showing a loss as it looks like today was the perhaps the proper time to buy them. Still plenty of time for this trade to work out but not if the rally continues. Gold lost $82 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU shed 7 1/2, while GDX lost around 2 3/4. Volume was a bit above average. The gold shares did finish up from their lows on the day. The short term indicators for GDX are choppy on the oversold side. The 200 day moving average remains as near term support. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which doesn't fit with a positive day for stocks. The short term indicators are turning higher but remain in oversold territory. Not sure what comes next for the VIX. Light on the economic data due out this week. Fridays jobs report is the one that will be closely watched. Asia was mixed and Europe lower to start the week. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.